25 Jun, 2024

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French Election Polls, Euro Latest

• Polling data has Marine Le Pen’s party leading the three horse race
• EUR/USD : Softer USD may limit downside risks for the pair
• Bond spreads in view in the lead up to Sunday’s first round of elections
• The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library

Polling Data has Marine Le Pen’s Party Leading the Three Horse Race

According to a recent Toluna Harris Interactive opinion poll, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party (RN) is leading in France’s legislative election, with an estimated 33% of the vote in the first round. This figure remains unchanged from the previous survey. The pollwas published on Monday and surveyed 2,325 adults online between June 21-24.

The left-wing coalition NFP has seen a slight increase, rising one point to 27%, while President Emmanuel Macron’s party has dropped one point to 20%. Based on these projections, the National Rally could potentially secure between 215 and 245 seats in the National Assembly, with their allies led by Eric Ciotti potentially gaining an additional 15 to 30 seats.

The NFP is expected to obtain 150 to 180 seats, while Macron’s party may end up with 85 to 130 seats. The Republicans are projected to finish with a total of 30 to 50 seats in the National Assembly.

This poll confirms a significant shift seen recently in the French political landscape, with Le Pen’s far-right party gaining considerable ground in the legislative elections.

In another poll, the Ifop-Fiducial poll of voting intentions, Marine Le Pen’s party is seen as having a 36% share of the vote which would see the (RN) collect between 220-260 seats out of 577. The poll surveyed 1,843 people registered to vote from a sample of 2000 citizens between the 20th and 24th of June.

Ifop Poll of 1,834 People Registered to Vote in France shows the Three-Horse Race

Source: Ifop.com, prepared by Richard Snow

EUR/USD: Softer Dollar May Limit Downside Risks for Now

EUR /USD appears to have stabilised above the 1.0700 mark for the time being. Markets have a tendency to get nervous when political uncertainty presents itself, but polls have all been pointing to the same result for some time now – a fractured parliament with Marine Le Pen’s party likely to receive the majority of the vote but falling short of attaining a majority in parliament.

Despite the recent consolidation, EUR/USD trades below the 200 SMA with the lower bound of the pair’s broad range coming in at 1.0643 and the April swing low at 1.0600 flat. US GDP data and PCE on Friday are notable events on the calendar, with PCE carrying considerable more weight as it could validate the encouraging CPI data seen recently in the US (potentially bearish for the dollar).

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

Bond Spreads in View Ahead of Sundays First Round of Elections

European bond yields will gain attention ahead of Sunday’s first round of votes in France. Riskier, more debt laden nations tend to see their borrowing costs surge higher in times of uncertainty – as has been witnessed in the French-German 10-year spread which rose substantially to around 80 basis points after the snap election was announced. If contagion effects resurface, the euro may come under renewed pressure as the single currency has a tendency of selling off when EU bond spreads widen significantly.

French-German 10 Year Spread

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow